AI-run trading research lab

The trading lab that shows its work.

Frontier AIs bring methods from mathematics, physics and information theory. A public protocol tries to kill every one. What survives is committed before it trades, and every test is counted.

Every test countedEvery trade committed before it happensMethodology public, live edge never
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Random matrix theoryInformation theoryStatistical physicsBayesian inferenceTopological data analysisKalman filteringRegime-switching modelsTransfer entropyExtreme value theoryNetwork scienceOptimal controlSpectral analysis Random matrix theoryInformation theoryStatistical physicsBayesian inferenceTopological data analysisKalman filteringRegime-switching modelsTransfer entropyExtreme value theoryNetwork scienceOptimal controlSpectral analysis
01 · The AI council

Many minds propose. One protocol decides.

Our research is generated and run by AI agents, and we say so openly. Several frontier models from different vendors play separate roles, so no model ever grades its own homework.

01

Propose

Frontier models carry methods across fields, from physics to markets, and turn them into testable hypotheses.

cross-field
02

Attack

A skeptic from a different vendor than the proposer hunts for leakage, look-ahead bias and wishful thinking.

vendor-separated
03

Verify

A tool-using agent fetches every cited source and checks the math symbolically. If a quote or a derivation doesn't match, the idea dies before it touches data.

sources + symbolic math
04

Count

Every idea is logged in the trial ledger, and the kills are logged too, so the multiple-testing math stays honest.

nothing hidden

Consensus is never evidence. Models share training data, so agreement between them is correlated opinion. Only data the models have never seen can support an idea.

02 · Research protocol

Built to kill ideas. Fast.

The council makes ideas cheap. Rigor is what makes them worth anything. Every hypothesis runs the same gauntlet, in the open.

  1. 1

    Pre-registration

    The hypothesis, data, metrics and kill criteria are frozen and hashed before any test runs.

  2. 2

    Sealed out-of-sample holdout

    Holdout data is run once with logged access and burned if touched early. History from before a model's training cutoff can kill an idea but never support it.

  3. 3

    Tests with known answers

    Every version of the pipeline must find nothing in pure noise and recover signals we planted, before it may judge a real idea. Our validation code is locked: the AI can read it, never change it.

  4. 4

    Overfitting forensics

    We report the Probability of Backtest Overfitting (PBO via CSCV) and the Deflated Sharpe Ratio (DSR) against the full effective trial count.

  5. 5

    Trial ledger

    Every variant ever tried is counted, failures included. A survivor only means something once you know how many died.

  6. 6

    Salted hash commitments

    Before every order is sent, a salted SHA-256 of it is published and timestamped. We can't rewrite history, and no one can read our orders from the hash.

  7. 7

    Verifiable without leaking edge

    Aggregated daily results are published on a delay. Full order files and salts go to verifiers under NDA, and become public when a strategy retires.

ledger / commitments.log

      Illustrative format · not real data
    
03 · The public record

The record, in public.

No numbers until they're measured. Here is when each one arrives.

  1. First live trade, committed before it was sent

  2. First council ledger (proposed, killed, live)

  3. Scoreboard opens with 6 months of verified record

Ideas proposed Pending · Jan 2027
—
Discarded Pending · Jan 2027
—
Passed holdout Pending · Jan 2027
—
In paper trading Pending · Jan 2027
—
Live Pending · Jan 2027
—

// counters go live with the first published ledger. No numbers until they are measured.

The scoreboard

Our goal: beat hedge funds where they can't fit.Status: day 1. The scoreboard is public.

Funds win on data, capital and execution. We are betting on something else: many small, uncorrelated strategies, a very low cost per experiment, and research anyone can reproduce. We will measure it, not claim it.

BenchmarkNet SharpeCalmar
Testrian (verified record)— pending— pending
BTC buy & hold— pending— pending
Crypto-fund index— pending— pending
Risk-free rate— pending— pending
Rolling window starts at 6 months of live record. Published only with verification links.

● Always public

  • The research protocol and its annexes
  • How the council works: roles, rotation and blinding
  • Validation health: noise tests, planted-signal recovery, decoy kill rate
  • Every kill counted in the public ledger
  • Failure notes on ideas killed before they reach capital
  • Hash commitments from the first live trade
  • Open-source validation tooling (from Nov 2026)

● Never public while live

  • Parameters, signals, universe or timing of live strategies
  • Exact council prompts and the idea cards behind live strategies
  • Venue and pair mix of live strategies
  • Full order files of live strategies (verifiers only, under NDA)
  • Return figures without a verification link
For researchers and allocators

Don't trust us. Verify us.

From December 2026, qualified researchers and allocators can request verification access: commitment logs, salts and read-only exchange records, under NDA. We don't manage outside money and don't sell signals.

Request verification access →

Who's behind it. Testrian Lab, an AI-run trading research lab.
contact@testrian.com

The weekly lab note

Watch the experiments run. Including the ones that fail.

One email a week covering what the council proposed, what the protocol killed and what we learned. Free, with no signals and no hype.

We'll email you a link to confirm. Unsubscribe anytime. Privacy

Or read the lab notes first.

For quants · waitlist

Pro pack and the Backtest Overfitting Check

The Pro pack is our validation harness as software, with no performance claims. The Backtest Overfitting Check is a free web tool: upload strategy returns, get PBO, Deflated Sharpe and MinTRL. Join the waitlist and we'll write when each one opens.

You'll also get the weekly lab note. Unsubscribe anytime. Privacy